Detailed Analysis: Will Conor McGregor Return to the Octagon in 2025?
As of 08:36 PM IDT on Wednesday, May 7, 2025, the question of whether Conor McGregor will return to the UFC octagon remains a topic of intense speculation among MMA fans.
Known for his charisma and record-breaking pay-per-view draws, McGregor has not fought since July 2021, when he suffered a broken leg in a loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 264.
This analysis explores the likelihood of his return in 2025, considering recent statements, his political ambitions, legal challenges, and physical condition, providing a comprehensive prediction based on available information.
Background on McGregor’s Absence and Anticipated Return
McGregor’s last fight was a first-round technical knockout loss to Dustin Poirier, ending with a gruesome leg injury that sidelined him for over three years.
In 2024, there was significant anticipation for his return, with a scheduled fight against Michael Chandler at UFC 303 in June canceled due to a broken toe.
Throughout 2024, both McGregor and UFC President Dana White made statements suggesting a 2025 return. For instance, in September 2024, McGregor told DAZN’s Ariel Helwani, “It’ll be 2025,” emphasizing his intent to stay in shape and be ready (DAZN News GB). Dana White also initially predicted an early 2025 return, as reported by Reuters on September 10, 2024.
However, by November 2024, White’s stance shifted,
with MMA Junkie reporting on November 16, 2024, that McGregor’s return might be pushed to late 2025, citing his wealth and business commitments.
A Reddit post from November 17, 2024, on r/ufc (Reddit) echoed this, stating White announced a late 2025 return during the UFC 309 post-fight press conference. MMA Fighting on November 14, 2024, also had White anticipating a later part of 2025 return, marking over four years since McGregor’s last fight.
Presidential Campaign: A Major Shift in Focus
A significant development occurred in March 2025, when McGregor announced his intention to run for president of Ireland in the 2025 election, scheduled for November 11.
CNN reported on March 21, 2025, that McGregor declared his candidacy on an anti-immigration platform, aiming to oppose the EU Migration Pact.
This announcement was foreshadowed in September 2024, with Fox News reporting on September 5, 2024, that he hinted at a presidential run, suggesting he might prioritize politics over fighting.
The impact of this campaign is substantial.
Running for president requires significant time for campaigning,
public appearances, and policy discussions, especially given the election’s timing in November 2025. MMA Fighting on March 28, 2025, quoted McGregor saying he passed on a comeback fight to focus on his political career, stating, “I’m happy with what I’ve done,” indicating a shift away from fighting for 2025.
This suggests that his political ambitions are likely to take precedence, making a mid-2025 fight improbable due to the campaign’s demands.
Legal Issues and Public Image
McGregor’s legal challenges add another layer of complexity.
Wikipedia updated as of May 6, 2025, details that in November 2024, an Irish High Court ruled in a civil case that he had assaulted and raped a woman in 2018, ordering him to pay over €248,000 in damages.
In December 2024, he was ordered to pay the victim’s legal costs, amounting to approximately €1,500,000.
Following this, he lost several sponsorship deals, which could affect his financial motivation to fight and his public image, potentially influencing UFC’s willingness to book him for high-profile events.
The Athletic on January 31, 2025, discussed how this civil case might harm his earnings and UFC career, noting no appeal had been lodged as of that date.
Age and Injury History
At 36 years old in 2025, McGregor is nearing the later stages of a fighter’s career, especially considering the physical toll of MMA.
His injury history is notable: a broken leg in July 2021 and a broken toe in 2024 that canceled his fight with Chandler.
These injuries, combined with his long layoff, raise concerns about his readiness to compete at the elite level.
Articles like USA Today on September 22, 2024, highlight the mystery surrounding his return, noting his last fight was over three years ago, adding to the uncertainty.
Recent Updates and Speculation
As of May 2025, there have been no definitive announcements about McGregor’s return.
MMA UK on May 3, 2025, noted ongoing speculation about a potential comeback, with Dana White’s view and possible opponents like Chandler discussed, but no confirmed dates.
In April 2025, McGregor mentioned on X (X) that he’d only return to a stadium and has “unfinished business” with Chandler, but this doesn’t specify a 2025 timeline.
Given the lack of confirmed fights and his focus on the presidential campaign, it seems unlikely he’ll fight before November 2025.
Analysis and Prediction
Given the information, research suggests McGregor is unlikely to return to the octagon in 2025.
His focus on the presidential campaign, with the election in November, likely precludes him from training and fighting earlier in the year.
The evidence leans toward his legal issues and age also influencing this decision, as they could affect his motivation and physical condition.
While a late 2025 fight, possibly in December, is theoretically possible if he loses the election and decides to fulfill his contract (he mentioned two fights left in Sportsnet.ca), organizing a fight takes time, and no confirmed dates have emerged as of May 2025.
Table: Key Factors Influencing McGregor’s 2025 Return
Factor | Details | Impact on Return |
|---|---|---|
Presidential Campaign | Announced March 2025, election in November 2025, focusing on campaigning | Likely delays fighting, prioritizes politics |
Legal Issues | Civil case ruling November 2024, lost sponsorships | May affect motivation and public image |
Age and Injuries | 36 years old, broken leg in 2021, broken toe in 2024 | Physical readiness and recovery concerns |
UFC Contract | Two fights left, in negotiations, but no confirmed dates | Potential for late 2025 fight, speculative |
Conclusion
It seems likely that Conor McGregor will not return to the octagon in 2025, given his focus on the Irish presidential election and other commitments.
While fans may hope for a late-year comeback, the current trajectory suggests he’s prioritizing politics over fighting this year.
For more MMA insights, test your knowledge with our MMA trivia game and stay tuned for updates.
